With just a month to go until the March 20 primary, Brad Schneider has pulled into the lead in the four-way primary. He leads all other candidates with 29 percent of the vote. His nearest rival, Ilya Sheyman, garners just 14 percent of the vote. John Tree and Vivek Bavda are far behind at 4 percent and 2 percent, respectively.
- 29% - Brad Schneider
- 14% - Ilya Sheyman
- 4% - John Tree
- 2% - Vivek Bavda
His lead is even larger among voters who voted in at least 3 of the last 4 Democratic primaries, voters age 50 and older, women, union households, Jewish voters and those who are strongly pro-choice.
Schneider has increased his name identification to 49 percent and enjoys a 29%-8% favorable to unfavorable rating. Sheyman has just 34 percent name identification. Schneider’s lead is not simply a reflection of his broader recognition. Among voters who know both candidates, Schneider leads 42 percent to 26 percent, indicating that Democrats will continue to prefer Brad Schneider as both candidates continue their communications.
Brad Schneider is building a solid campaign capitalizing on his superior financial resources. He had more than $450,000 cash on hand at the end of 2011. He is using those resources to build a solid field campaign and send direct mail.
Schneider also enjoys the support of IBEW 134, Ironworkers 63, Bricklayers and Allied Craftworkers District Council of Illinois, the Chicago Painters Local 147, the Transport Workers Union Illinois-Indiana State Conference, the Vernon Township Democrats, the Maine Township Democrats, State Representative Julie Hamos, Mayor Marty Moylan, State Senator Susan Garrett, State Senator Jeff Schoenberg, Congresswoman Melissa Bean and Congressman Steny Hoyer.
Here's what David Nir of Daily Kos Elections says of the development:
"The only other poll of the contest was a PPP survey conducted for the PCCC in early January which had Sheyman at 23 and Schneider at 21. But with the primary now little over a month away, the race has changed since then. Schneider's memo makes several references to "direct communication" with voters (i.e., mail), which is probably a better use of resources than the money Sheyman recently put toward a TV ad. A response from Sheyman (at the bottom of the link) says they're stepping up their own mail program but doesn't mention any contradictory poll numbers."